Though Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris decisively Tuesday night, Quinnipiac’s polling director said their polls were accurately within the margin of error nationally and in the swing states.
Donald Trump is the 2024 president-elect, and he was declared the winner earlier than some expected.
Their final election poll showed Trump receiving 48% of support, and Kamala Harris receiving 47%.
It’s hard for anyone to predict the outcome of the presidential election.
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"We're in the U.S. of A - anything can happen,” Howard Jordan, of Hamden, said.
We spoke with Harris and Trump voters alike. No matter who they voted for, some were surprised by the outcome.
“I was expecting her to win,” Mirielle, of Hamden, said.
Others say they called it.
"The way America is going right now, I feel like they were going to pick Donald anyway,” Celine, of New Haven, said.
Polls like Quinnipiac University’s expected a bit of a tossup.
"We've predicted that it would be a very close race in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, nationally, and our polls were spot on,” Doug Schwartz of Quinnipiac University Poll said.
Trump beat Harris by three percentage points as of Thursday evening. Quinnipiac had polled it within one point.
Schwartz said the average polling margin of error in a presidential election is six points.
"If you get within that, you're better than average. And our polls are. We came within, on average, about three points of the victor,” he said.
Schwartz's team focused on five swing states, polling to find Trump win Pennsylvania and Georgia, and Harris take Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina - all in a seven-point range.
Trump ended up winning all five, by no more than four points.
"Most polling organizations across the country, they underestimated just how many votes Donald Trump would get and overestimated how much his opponent would get,” Bilal Sekou, an associate professor of political science at the University of Hartford, said.
Sekou said Quinnipiac is one of the better polling institutions, but notes pollsters in general didn't predict Trump to win the swing states with the comfortability he ended up achieving.
"Unfortunately, they're in the business in which people want to actually know with some certainty what the outcome of the election will be. And polling just can't provide people with that kind of certainty,” Sekou said.
Sekou said polls aren't going anywhere, because the public loves them and so do people running for and funding elections. But he said making them better is something that should be a continued conversation.
At Quinnipiac, Schwartz said they've been doing phone call polling for 30 years. He said some centers do online polls, and that's something they’re going to take a look at in the future.
