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Treasury yields fall as attention turns to inflation data

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on August 02, 2024 in New York City. 
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the latest inflation prints and other key economic data slated for the week.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down by 3.7 basis points at 3.905%. The 2-year Treasury slipped 3.8 basis points to 4.015%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Amid continued uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy, investors looked ahead to fresh inflation data due this week.

July's producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, is due Tuesday, followed by the consumer price index for the same month on Wednesday.

The inflation data will be watched closely by investors after recent concerns about whether the U.S. economy could enter a recession and whether the Federal Reserve should have already begun cutting interest rates to avoid a hard landing.

When the Fed met last month, it left rates unchanged, but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, depending on signals from economic data, both on the inflation and labor market front.

That was followed by a weaker-than-expected jobs report that prompted recession fears, which were however soothed slightly by the latest weekly initial jobless claims figures that came in below forecasts last week.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in September, but traders were last split on the size of the cut, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed.

Also this week, retail sales figures for July are expected and could provide additional hints about the state of the economy and how U.S. consumers are faring.

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